Question.
How will the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan affect India? Comment.
(UPPSC, UP PCS Mains General Studies-II/GS-2 2018)
Answer.
Doha Agreement was signed between the United Nations of America and the Taliban in February 2020). As per the Doha agreement, the United States agreed to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by May 2021. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan can have several implications for India, both in terms of security and regional geopolitics.
The followings are some potential effects of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan:
Security concerns:
With the withdrawal of U.S. troops, there is a possibility to increase in instability and a resurgence of militant groups in Afghanistan. This could have spillover effects on India's security situation, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan-based militant groups, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, could find an opportunity to intensify their activities. India would need to remain vigilant and strengthen its security measures along its borders.
Strategic implications:
The withdrawal of U.S. troops may create a power vacuum in Afghanistan, which could lead to a more assertive role for regional powers, including China and Pakistan. Both countries have been increasing their influence in Afghanistan through infrastructure development and economic projects. India, on the other hand, has been involved in capacity building, infrastructure development, and humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan. The shift in power dynamics could limit India's influence in the region and affect its strategic interests.
Economic loss:
India has invested significantly in Afghanistan's development, including infrastructure projects, education, and healthcare. The withdrawal of U.S. troops might disrupt these initiatives and hamper India's economic engagement in the country. Additionally, instability in Afghanistan can hinder regional connectivity initiatives, such as the Chabahar port project, which is crucial for India's access to Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Refugee influx:
The withdrawal of U.S. troops may trigger a humanitarian crisis, leading to an increase in Afghan refugees seeking shelter in neighboring countries, including India. This could pose socio-economic challenges for India, especially in states bordering Afghanistan. India would need to manage the influx effectively and provide the necessary support to those in need.
Overall, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan introduces uncertainty and potential challenges for India. India will need to adapt its strategies to effectively address the evolving security and geopolitical landscape in the region.
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